|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]朱敬宇 陈国明 孟祥坤 杨玉婷.基于N-K模型的深水井喷事故耦合风险分析[J].中国海上油气,2020,32(05):182-187.[doi:10.11935/j.issn.1673-1506.2020.05.023]
 ZHU Jingyu CHEN Guoming MENG Xiangkun YANG Yuting.N-K model-based coupling risk analysis of deep water blowout accidents[J].China Offshore Oil and Gas,2020,32(05):182-187.[doi:10.11935/j.issn.1673-1506.2020.05.023]
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基于N-K模型的深水井喷事故耦合风险分析()

《中国海上油气》[ISSN:1673-1506/CN:11-5339/TE]

卷:
第32卷
期数:
2020年05期
页码:
182-187
栏目:
海洋工程
出版日期:
2020-09-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
N-K model-based coupling risk analysis of deep water blowout accidents
文章编号:
1673-1506(2020)05-0182-06
作者:
朱敬宇 陈国明 孟祥坤 杨玉婷
(中国石油大学(华东)海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心 山东青岛 266580)
Author(s):
ZHU Jingyu CHEN Guoming MENG Xiangkun YANG Yuting
(Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China)
关键词:
深水井喷事故 多因素 风险耦合 N-K模型 风险控制
Keywords:
deep water blowout accident multiple factors risk coupling N-K model risk control
分类号:
X913
DOI:
10.11935/j.issn.1673-1506.2020.05.023
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为控制深水井喷事故风险,保障我国南海深水油气开发安全有效运行,通过调研海上井喷事故案例,从人员、管理、技术、环境等4个方面辨识深水井喷事故的风险因素,并根据事故风险耦合机理,将井喷事故风险耦合类型划分为单因素耦合、双因素耦合和多因素耦合3种。以美国安全与环境执法局公布的1956—2016年发生的259起深水井喷事故统计数据为基础,应用N-K模型开展了深水井喷事故多因素耦合风险分析,结果表明:风险耦合值的大小决定井喷事故的发生可能性,人-管-技-环四因素耦合值最大,最容易导致井喷事故的发生; 此外,深水井喷事故风险局部耦合比较显著,尤其是管理和技术因素风险的耦合,容易突破风险阈值而造成井喷事故的发生。建议深水井控人员从管理和技术两个关键风险因素着手,尽可能避免人员、管理、技术、环境四因素共同耦合作用的发生,从而有效降低深水井喷事故的风险
Abstract:
In order to control the risk of deep water blowout accidents, and ensure the safe and effective deep water oil and gas development in South China Sea, by investigating cases of offshore blowout accidents, the risk factors of deep water blowout accidents were identified from four aspects of personnel, management, technology and environment. Furthermore, based on the coupling mechanism of accident risks, the coupling risk types of blowout accidents were classified into three categories of single-factor coupling, double-factor coupling and multi-factor coupling. According to the statistics of 259 deep water blowout accidents in 1956—2016 published by the U.S. Safety and Environmental Enforcement Agency, the N-K model was used to carry out a multi-factor coupling risk analysis of deep water blowout accidents. The results suggest that the magnitude of coupling risk value determines the occurrence possibility of blowout accident, and the maximum coupling value of personnel-management-technology-environment is the most likely to cause a blowout accident. In addition, the risk of deep water blowout accidents is locally coupled, especially the coupling of management and technical factors, which is likely to break through the risk threshold value and further lead to a blowout accident. It is recommended that deep water well control staffs shall start with the two key risk factors of management and technology, and try to avoid the coupling of personnel, management, technology and environment as much as possible, so as to effectively mitigate the risk of deep water blowout accidents

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相似文献/References:

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-11-25 改回日期:2019-12-15 *国家重点研发计划“海洋(深水)油气开采重大安全事故连锁风险演化、灾变机理及应对机制(编号:2017YFC0804501)”“海洋水合物钻完井及安全监测技术(编号:2016YFC0304005)”部分研究成果。 第一作者简介: 朱敬宇,男,博士研究生,研究方向为深水井喷事故风险评估及控制。地址:山东省青岛市黄岛区长江西路66号中国石油大学(华东)(邮编:266580)。E-mail:jingyu_zhu@126.com。 通信作者简介:陈国明,男,教授,博士生导师,主要从事海洋油气装备、油气安全工程方面研究。地址:山东省青岛市黄岛区长江西路66号中国石油大学(华东)(邮编:266580)。E-mail:offshore@126.com。
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-09-20