|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]李 中 吴建树 闫 伟 李 磊 邓金根 杨 浩陈际宇 黄 馨 王璐瑶.基于贝叶斯网络的深水探井井筒完整性失效风险评估[J].中国海上油气,2020,32(05):120-128.[doi:10.11935/j.issn.1673-1506.2020.05.015]
 LI Zhong WU Jianshu YAN Wei LI Lei DENG Jingen YANG HaoCHEN Jiyu HUANG Xin WANG Luyao.Risk assessment of wellbore integrity failure in deep water exploration wells based on Bayesian network[J].China Offshore Oil and Gas,2020,32(05):120-128.[doi:10.11935/j.issn.1673-1506.2020.05.015]
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基于贝叶斯网络的深水探井井筒完整性失效风险评估()

《中国海上油气》[ISSN:1673-1506/CN:11-5339/TE]

卷:
第32卷
期数:
2020年05期
页码:
120-128
栏目:
钻采工程(中国海油钻完井技术成果专辑)
出版日期:
2020-09-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk assessment of wellbore integrity failure in deep water exploration wells based on Bayesian network
文章编号:
1673-1506(2020)05-0120-09
作者:
李 中1 吴建树2 闫 伟2 李 磊1 邓金根2 杨 浩2陈际宇2 黄 馨2 王璐瑶2
(1. 中海石油(中国)有限公司湛江分公司 广东湛江 524057; 2. 中国石油大学(北京)油气资源与探测国家重点实验室 北京 102249)
Author(s):
LI Zhong1 WU Jianshu2 YAN Wei2 LI Lei1 DENG Jingen2 YANG Hao2CHEN Jiyu2 HUANG Xin2 WANG Luyao2
(1. CNOOC China Limited, Zhanjiang Branch, Zhanjiang, Guangdong 524057, China; 2. State Key Laboratory ofOil and Gas Resources and Exploration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China)
关键词:
井筒完整性 风险评估 贝叶斯网络 层次分析法 风险矩阵法
Keywords:
wellbore integrity risk assessment Bayesian network analytic hierarchy process risk matrix method
分类号:
TE28+1
DOI:
10.11935/j.issn.1673-1506.2020.05.015
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
探井转开发井是降低深水油气开发成本的重要途径,然而探井的井筒完整性失效是深水探井转开发井工艺中的主要风险,为有效评估探井井筒完整性风险,建立了深水探井井筒完整性风险评估模型。利用故障树分析法将探井井筒分为井口失稳、套管管柱失效、水泥环失效、水泥塞失效、裸眼完井段失稳、人工作业管理风险等6个风险屏障单元,并确定了各个单元的主要风险因素; 利用Noisy-OR gate模型和历史数据,确定了贝叶斯网络的条件概率; 最后利用贝叶斯网络计算得到的失效概率与层次分析法相结合,定量确定了各风险因素的权重,并通过风险矩阵法评估了风险因素发生的可能性与严重程度,实现了对井筒完整性风险等级的划分。实例分析结果表明,本文所建立的风险评估模型实现了对探井井筒各风险因素及井筒完整性失效的定量判断,有助于降低深水探井转开发井的事故风险,可为现场井筒完整性管理提供一定的理论指导
Abstract:
The conversion of exploration wells to development wells is an important way for reducing the development cost of deep-water oil & gas wells. The failure of wellbore integrity of exploration wells is the main risk in the process of converting deep-water exploration wells into development wells. In order to effectively evaluate the wellbore integrity risk of exploration wells, a risk assessment model for wellbore integrity of deep-water exploration wells is established. By using the Fault Tree Analysis, the wellbore of exploration well is divided into six risk barrier units, including the wellhead instability, casing string failure, cement sheath failure, cement plug failure, instability of open-hole completion interval, and risk in manual operation management. The main risk factors of each unit is hereby determined; the Noisy-OR gate model and historical data are used to determine the conditional probability of the Bayesian network. Together with the failure probability calculated by the Bayesian network, the analytic hierarchy process is used to quantitatively determine the weight of each risk factor, and the probability and severity of risk factors are evaluated by the risk matrix method, hence realizing the classification of the risk level of wellbore integrity. The results of case analysis show that, the risk assessment model established in this paper realizes the quantitative judgment of the risk factors of wellbore and the failure of wellbore integrity, which is conducive to reducing the risk during the process of converting deep-water exploration wells into development wells and could provide theoretical guidance for the management of on-site wellbore integrity

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2020-02-25 改回日期:2020-05-16*中国海洋石油集团有限公司“十三五”重大科研项目子课题“深水高温高压探井转开发井技术研究(编号:CNOOC-KJ 135 ZDXM 05 LTD ZJ 01)”部分研究成果。第一作者简介: 李中,男,教授级高级工程师,中国海洋石油集团有限公司钻完井资深技术专家,1994年毕业于原江汉石油学院钻井工程专业,现从事海洋油气钻完井的研究和管理工作。E-mail:lizhong@cnooc.com.cn。
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-09-20