|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]袁晓兵 陈国明 范红艳 邵筱焱 杨 超 葛伟凤 蔡宝平.基于贝叶斯网络的水下采油树系统剩余寿命预测[J].中国海上油气,2020,32(04):171-178.[doi:10.11935/j.issn.1673-1506.2020.04.022]
 YUAN Xiaobing CHEN Guoming FAN Hongyan SHAO Xiaoyan YANG Chao GE Weifeng CAI Baoping.Bayesian network-based prediction on remaining life of subsea Christmas tree system[J].China Offshore Oil and Gas,2020,32(04):171-178.[doi:10.11935/j.issn.1673-1506.2020.04.022]
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基于贝叶斯网络的水下采油树系统剩余寿命预测()

《中国海上油气》[ISSN:1673-1506/CN:11-5339/TE]

卷:
第32卷
期数:
2020年04期
页码:
171-178
栏目:
海洋工程
出版日期:
2020-07-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Bayesian network-based prediction on remaining life of subsea Christmas tree system
文章编号:
1673-1506(2020)04-0171-08
作者:
袁晓兵1 陈国明1 范红艳1 邵筱焱1 杨 超1 葛伟凤2 蔡宝平1
(1. 中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院 山东青岛 266580; 2. 中海油安全技术服务有限公司 天津 300456)
Author(s):
YUAN Xiaobing1 CHEN Guoming1 FAN Hongyan1 SHAO Xiaoyan1 YANG Chao1 GE Weifeng2 CAI Baoping1
(1. College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China; 2. CNOOC Safety & Technology Services Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300456, China)
关键词:
水下采油树系统 贝叶斯网络 相互依赖性 可靠性 突发失效 剩余寿命预测
Keywords:
subsea Christmas tree system Bayesian network interdependence reliability sudden failures remaining life prediction
分类号:
TE95
DOI:
10.11935/j.issn.1673-1506.2020.04.022
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对水下采油树系统事故频发且相关数据不易获得的问题,基于贝叶斯网络将水下采油树系统划分为水上部分、水下部分和FPSO 3个模块,考虑不同模块间的相互依赖性关系,结合突发失效与正常的退化趋势,建立了水下采油树系统的剩余寿命预测模型,分析相应的模块可靠性,结合失效阈值对剩余寿命进行了预测。结果表明,水下采油树系统的整体可靠性低于任一模块的可靠性,其退化过程先快后慢,并大体呈指数分布; 高强度的突发失效将使系统失效过程加速,进而减少设备的剩余寿命,考虑相互依赖性的设备剩余寿命明显低于不考虑相互依赖性时的剩余寿命
Abstract:
Jacket platform plays an important role in offshore oil and gas development, and high strength steel has been commonly used in its design and construction in China. With the rapid development of offshore oil and gas development, jacket platforms designed with extra-high strength steel have been gradually applied in water depth of 200~350 m. According to the requirements on jacket platform steels, this paper analyzes the application restrictions of extra-high strength steel in jacket platform in terms of construction environment, dynamic performance and fatigue performance, and forecasts the development trends and prospects of jacket platform steels by combining with the jacket platform steel standards at home and abroad, steel grade application status and extra-high strength steel production in China. It is believed that both extra-high strength steel and high strength steel can serve as the main steel materials of the jacket and upper modules of domestic jacket platforms in water depth of 200~350 m. Research and development of thicker jacket platform steel with higher strength, good weldability and high corrosion resistance will be our main research direction in the future

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2020-01-06 改回日期:2020-06-25*国家自然科学基金项目“海底复杂环境下深水采油树系统失效机理及故障诊断方法研究(编号:51779267)”、国家重点研发计划项目“水下生产系统数字化自主型预测与生产优化技术研究及应用示范(编号:2019YFE0105100)”部分研究成果。 第一作者简介: 袁晓兵,男,在读博士研究生,高级工程师,主要从事装备技术安全研究工作。地址:深圳市城市公共安全技术研究院(邮编:518067)。E-mail:yuanxb@szsti.org。 通信作者简介
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-07-20